Disclaimer and Acknowledgements – I should have mentioned this earlier, but better late than never. All the comments in this blog are preliminary and the opinions my own. The purpose of reconnaissance trips is to get a quick overview of the issues in an event and the process begins with small slices of what happened based on what we see, read, and who we talk to. Gradually a picture emerges that (I hope) comes close to the truth. But some of the early hypotheses may turn out to be in error or downright wrong. Numerous Japanese researchers are working on many aspects of the event and other international teams are hear or will be headed to Japan soon. We share our ideas, debate issues, publish results and by a year from now, I expect there will be pretty clear consensus on the most important lessons from this event. But right now, data is still being gathered, and the situation is still fluid. It’s one of the aspects of reconnaissance efforts that I find most stimulating – the scientific process in action and in overdrive. Much of the information I’m passing on here has been gathered by others – in particular, casualty statistics ( National Police Agency), water heights (numerous teams, data compiled by IOC/UNESCO).

A 5.1 aftershock gave us a little rattle around 3:30 AM. Hard to get back to sleep afterwards.

So far we’ve spent most of our time on the broad, flat coastal plain south of Sendai. The tsunami water heights in this area were very large – over 30 feet in some places. This was a big tsunami – the damages impressive and the losses significant. But most concrete buildings in this area appeared to have survived – especially the structures designated as evacuation places. Many of the people we talked to in the shelters had weathered the tsunami in these buildings. Today we headed further north – first to Ishinomaki and then to Minami Sanriku where the waves were higher and the damage more severe.

Ishinomaki, is a port a city of over 160,000 people. Some areas were hit by surges reaching more than 45 feet high. Much of the city was exposed to the tsunami over 5600 died or went missing, the highest overall total of any city in the tsunami area. The reason is most likely exposure – Ishinomaki simply had more people in the area that was flooded. We started in the port area where cleanup had removed almost all traces of major damage in the harbor. Another reminder that reconnaissance teams really need to visit areas early if they are interested in water heights and structural damage. The other side of the city was in much worse shape, but the rate at which debris is being removed is still remarkable. This occurs at both a large and small scale – with massive machines and an army of individual volunteers. It occurred to me as we were walking over piles of discarded tatami mats that this is one industry that should benefit from the tsunami. Perhaps yes – but the benefit is most likely going to be in China as Megumi told me that almost all of Japan’s tatami is now produced overseas.

Last stop of the day was Minami Sanriku, a city noted for its tsunami preparedness efforts including sea walls, tsunami gates to cut off surges at the river mouth, designated evacuation buildings, and a well-exercised disaster prevention organization. The harbor area features a series of commemorative plaques and markers for the past tsunamis to hit the area – 1896 Meiji, 1933 Showa, 1960 Chile. One brightly painted marker clearly shows the 2.6 meter (8 feet) height of the 1960 tsunami. The preparedness efforts would have all worked fine had the tsunami been similar to what happened in those previous events and what the community had planned for. But 2011 easily overtopped and broke the sea walls, and reached fourth floor elevations in much of the city. A particularly tragic story played out at the City’s Disaster Prevention Center, and a designated evacuation place. Keri Luna, a city official kept at the microphone announcing to the public that a tsunami was coming. Until she was finally overwhelmed. Of the thirty people on the fourth floor of the building, only 10 survived. Her body was found only a few days ago. Perhaps the saddest part of the story is that the building is only a five minutes walk from high ground and if everyone had headed to the hill instead of the building, they all would have survived.

Two more aftershocks at the hotel so far this evening….